Black, Asian, and Hispanic voters favor Democratic candidates by substantial margins ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.
While all three groups have historically favored Democrats, the latest findings draw into sharp relief the racial and ethnic divisions in the nation’s political preferences heading into elections that will determine which political party takes control and wins a majority in Congress.
Significance. In the poll, 44% of White voters supported Republican candidates by a slight majority, while 37% supported Democratic candidates.
A vast majority, 70%, of Black people who responded to the poll favored Democratic candidates.
The poll found that 56% of Asian voters supported Democratic candidates, while 16% backed Republican candidates. Of Asian voters in the poll, 27% said they were unsure or would vote for a third-party candidate.
The Pew analysis only looked at English-speaking Asian voters.
About 51% of Hispanic voters said they prefer Democratic candidates and 24% said they prefer Republican candidates. A quarter of Hispanic voters said they are either undecided or prefer a third-party candidate.
Though, according to previous Pew polling, naturalized Hispanic voters slightly favored Trump in the 2024 presidential election, as did Hispanic men in an Edison Research exit poll, in previous midterm and presidential elections over the past two decades, they have supported Democrats by considerable margins.
The poll did not include data on other demographics like Pacific Islanders, Native Hawaiians, Native Americans, or Native Alaskans.
Overlooked angle. The analysis looked at all registered voters, yet historically, not all registered voters have voted in past midterm elections. In the last midterm election, only 46.2% of eligible voters in the U.S. cast their ballots, according to Ballotpedia.
A 2023 Pew Research Center poll found that overall White adults participated the most consistently in the last three midterm elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022, compared to other races and ethnicities.
Power structure. In past elections, support from different demographics has helped each party take a majority in Congress and overall control of decision-making in the legislative branch.
For example, in the last midterm election, 57% of White voters backed Republican candidates and 41% backed Democratic candidates. In contrast, 93% of Black voters supported Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, and only 5% supported Republican candidates.
Elections can often hinge on turnout, voting districts, and other factors. Racial and ethnics demographics are not destiny, nor concrete indicators for predicting which parties and candidates will win an election.
