Neighborhoods with growing populations of immigrants without proper legal documentation saw a decrease in crime rates, contrary to the popular political rhetoric that vilifies undocumented immigrants, according to new research from a collective of universities.
Significance. The study, conducted by researchers at the University of California Irvine, Stanford University, and the University of Akron, found that neighborhoods with growing numbers of immigrants without proper legal documentation experienced a reduction in the amount of property crime in the neighborhood. Further, neighborhoods that had increasing numbers of undocumented immigrants saw no change in the rate of violent crime as the population started to increase.
The neighborhoods observed also saw decreases in the number of assaults in the area, but an increased number of robberies. According to researchers Charis Kubrin, Derek Christopher, Cheyenne Hodgen, Xiaoshuang Iris Luo, and John Hipp, “The mechanism behind this result remains uncertain,” and further research is needed.
The researchers used individual-level Census data of 11,500 neighborhoods across the U.S. from 2010 to 2018. Over the course of the study, the data show that those without proper legal documentation went from 5.6% to 4.8% of the population of the cities observed.
Overlooked angle. Crime rates across the U.S. have dropped over the past 20 years (excluding a brief surge during the pandemic), according to the FBI. The violent crime rate dropped to 9.3% last year, the biggest year-to-year decline since the FBI started tracking that data.
One theory of why the presence of immigrants without proper legal documentation does not increase crime rates is due to the risk of jail and punishment. A 2007 study suggests that undocumented immigrants do not commit crimes after immigrating because they recognize they have already sacrificed a lot to pursue better opportunities in a different country. The researchers highlighted that if they got caught, all of the time, money, and physical hardships of the journey would have been for nothing, and they could be detained or deported by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.
The power structure. Negative stereotypes and criminal consequences have long been associated with immigrants in the U.S. In recent years, negative rhetoric around immigrants who lack proper legal documentation has increased.
The Trump administration and Republican Party have often made false claims about immigrants, calling them “criminals” and “rapists,” even though these claims have been debunked.
A fact check done by The Marshall Project found that Trump made the claim that “[South American countries are] emptying out their prisons and their mental institutions into the United States of America,” over 560 times up until the article was published in 2024. They found zero evidence of the 560 claims that implied all immigrants from South American countries were criminals who were going to harm the U.S.
Since then, Trump and his allies have continued to use this harmful rhetoric, especially in their crackdown on legal and illegal immigration.
Experts say. “With these findings, law enforcement may be better equipped to target their efforts toward neighborhoods at the greatest risk of crime,” the researchers said. “All else equal, our findings suggest that law enforcement activity to prevent property crime and violent assaults would be optimally concentrated in neighborhoods where residents are disproportionately U.S. citizens.”
